Autonomous-Driving Disruption: Technology, Use Cases, and Opportunities

Asutosh Padhi and Philipp Kampshoff, two McKinsey partners, shared the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility’s perspective on the most prominent autonomous-driving use cases. Outtakes from their discussion include:

  • Asutosh Padhi: …True [SAE] Level 5 [vehicle] autonomy is about ten-plus years away. But we are likely to see “geofenced” applications of autonomous vehicles [AVs] in the next three to five years.
  • Philipp Kampshoff: [Driverless] “robo-taxis” have huge potential to disrupt the industry as we know it and to encourage people to go away from private ownership to using robo-taxis 100 percent of the time. We’re going to see that most likely in urban environments...In comparison to private ownership today, if you live in an urban environment, robo-taxis can be 30 to 50 percent cheaper for you.
  • Kampshoff: Other examples of use cases would be highway applications for long distance goods transport. We talk about “platooning,” at least as a bridging technology, where you have two trucks, and the second one platoons behind the first one. You don’t need a driver in the second one anymore…When we look at the numbers, initially platooning is going to help with the total cost of ownership for a fleet provider, driving down 10 percent of the cost. Later, when you take out all the drivers and you have this concept of platooning “trains” [of trucks], you can go as high as a 40 percent reduction on total cost of ownership.